Who wins in the ‘potash poker’ game played by Belarus, Canada, Russia, and the U.S.?

The potash market has recently shown signs of significant fluctuation influenced by geopolitical tensions and strategic moves by leading producers. Uralkali, a key potash producer based in Russia, announced its plan to undergo shutdown maintenance across several of its key mines—Berezniki-2, Berezniki-4, and Solikamsk-3—during the second and third quarters of 2025. This decision is expected to reduce the company’s potash output by at least 300,000 tonnes in Q2, although Q3 production levels will depend on the maintenance outcomes. Concurrently, according to the company’s statement, Uralkali aims to boost domestic sales by at least 400,000 tonnes, responding to rising local demand from NPK producers and farmers.

In Belarus, the country’s primary producer, Belaruskali, has navigated the challenges posed by EU and U.S. sanctions that disrupted its traditional logistics routes through Lithuania’s Klaipėda port. According to the recently published story by Russian Forbes, Belarus has rerouted its exports through Russian ports, benefiting from logistical and financial support from Moscow, including significant rail transport discounts. Despite the sanctions, which initially caused a dramatic decline in exports and a surge in prices to $1,000 per ton, Belaruskali managed to stabilize and even increase its export volumes in 2024 back to levels seen in 2021.

The United States, historically a significant importer of potash, has indicated a potential easing of sanctions against Belarusian potash in an attempt to substitute potash imports from Canada, which could significantly realign trade flows. This geopolitical maneuver is poised to impact not only North American markets but also global supply dynamics. The possible re-entry of Belarusian potash into the U.S. market could offset some of the supply constraints caused by sanctions against other major producers.

Moreover, the global potash market is experiencing a shift due to these geopolitical and market dynamics. Prices, which peaked dramatically due to the sanctions and logistical disruptions, have shown signs of stabilization. However, future pricing trends will likely be influenced by ongoing geopolitical negotiations and the operational adjustments of major producers like Uralkali and Belaruskali.

The future of the potash market hinges on several factors including geopolitical relations, trade policies, and producer strategies in Canada, Russia and Belarus.